%0 Journal Article %T SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR SHORT-TERM ML-BASED FORECASTING OF NATURAL DISASTER DAMAGE AND ESTIMATION OF PERSONNEL AND TECHNICAL RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS %A Posternak, E.V. %A Rybakov, A.V. %K short-term forecasting, disaster damage, response personnel and equipment, machine learning, SHAP analysis, socio-demographic factors, resource planning %J Problems of risk management in the technosphere %D 2026 %N 2025 %P 14 %I Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of Emercom of Russia