TY JOUR TI SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR SHORT-TERM ML-BASED FORECASTING OF NATURAL DISASTER DAMAGE AND ESTIMATION OF PERSONNEL AND TECHNICAL RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS KW short-term forecasting KW disaster damage KW response personnel and equipment KW machine learning KW SHAP analysis KW socio-demographic factors KW resource planning JO Problems of risk management in the technosphere AU Posternak, E.V. AU Rybakov, A.V. PY 2026 IS 2025 PB Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of Emercom of Russia