TY JOUR TI METHODOLOGY FOR REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE KW methodology KW incident forecasting KW social networks KW accident forecasting KW assessment of information reliability JO Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» AU Deineka, E.G. AU Vostryh, A.V. PY 2026 IS 2026 PB Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of Emercom of Russia