TY JOUR TI TO QUESTION ABOUT PROGNOSTICATION OF EXTRAORDINARY SITUATIONS OF NATURAL CHARACTER ON BASIS OF STATISTICAL INFORMATION KW extraordinary situation of natural character KW method prognostications KW model of prognostication KW expert methods KW mathematical methods KW regression KW polynomial JO NATURAL AND MAN-MADE RISKS (PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS) AU Grashchenko, E.A. AU Gagarina, T.V. AU Ivanov, A.N. PY 2015 IS 2015 PB Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of Emercom of Russia