TY JOUR TI FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL EMERGENCIES BASED ON AN REVIEW OF STATISTICS KW flood KW natural risk KW prediction KW assessment of the situation KW forecasting KW management solution JO NATURAL AND MAN-MADE RISKS (PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS) AU Zaborsky, B.V. AU Poryadin, S.V. PY 2016 IS 2016 PB Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of Emercom of Russia