Russian Federation
Russian Federation
UDC 614.835.3
UDC 614.841.12
The article presents a retrospective analysis of the dynamics of fires at oil industry infrastructure facilities for the period 2015–2024, identifies key risk factors and systemic problems in predicting dangerous fire parameters. Special attention is paid to the drastic change in the risk structure in recent years associated with the emergence of new anthropogenic threats, in particular attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles. Based on a critical analysis of existing methods for calculating fire parameters (spill area, flare height), the need for a review of the regulatory and methodological framework and the introduction of adaptive risk management strategies integrating technological innovations, probabilistic modeling and an interdisciplinary approach is substantiated.
fire safety, oil industry, statistics, unmanned aerial vehicles attacks, spill area, flame flare height, threat evolution
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