Russian Federation
UDC 519.876.5
A software module for simulation modeling of malware propagation in the Integrated Emergency Alert System (KSEON) of the Russian EMERCOM has been developed based on an adapted epidemiological PSIDR model. The model accounts for the hierarchical four-level network topology and enables assessment of infection propagation dynamics, identification of critical infrastructure nodes, and simulation of various cyberattack scenarios. The implementation utilizes Python programming language employing numerical methods for solving systems of ordinary differential equations and graph theory. The software package includes a graphical user interface for interactive modeling with real-time visualization capabilities. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that investments in threat detection systems (SIEM, SOC) provide significantly greater effectiveness compared to accelerating node recovery processes, reducing the epidemic coverage.
KSEON, PSIDR model, simulation modeling, information security, critical infrastructure, computer virus spread, graph theory
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