V. I. Il‘ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute FEB RAS (Head Scientist Researcher)
graduate student from 01.01.2023 until now
Sankt-Peterburgskiy gosudarstvennyy universitet
Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
The paper shows that traditional Eulerian approaches, which describe only velocity and concentration fields, but not the actual trajectories of hazardous substances and objects, are fundamentally insufficient for solving the problems of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations in the marine environment. Based on Lagrangian modeling, the paper demonstrates the possibilities of operational forecasting of the transport of oil and anthropogenic pollutants, radioactive emissions from accidents at coastal nuclear power plants, as well as the drift of bodies and shipwrecks in the context of complex multiscale ocean circulation. Examples that are directly related to the activities of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (the accident in Chazhma Bay, a hypothetical oil spill in the Kozmino port, pollution in the South-Eastern Baltic, anthropogenic pressure in the Taganrog Bay, and the consequences of accidents at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa and Fukushima-1 nuclear power plants) are considered, for which Lagrangian analysis allows us to identify transport corridors, areas of pollution accumulation, and temporary “windows” of risk. It is shown that the integration of Lagrangian modeling.
Lagrangian modeling, pollution drift, oil spills, radioactive contamination of the sea, search and rescue operations, ocean transport corridors, marine emergency forecasting
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2. Modelirovanie razlivov nefti v more dlya planirovaniya meropriyatij po obespecheniyu ekologicheskoj bezopasnosti pri realizacii neftegazovyx proektov. Chast` 1. Metodologiya / S.N. Zacepa [i dr.] // Problemy` Arktiki i Antarktiki. 2015. № 4(106). S. 26–38.
3. Modelirovanie razlivov nefti v more dlya planirovaniya meropriyatij po obespecheniyu e`kologicheskoj bezopasnosti pri realizacii neftegazovy`x proektov. Chast` 2. Osobennosti realizacii prikladnyx zadach / S.N. Zacepa [i dr.] // Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. 2016. № 1(107). S. 5–18.
4. Lagrangian Oil Spill Simulation in Peter the Great Bay (Sea of Japan) with a High-Resolution ROMS Model / S.V. Prants [et al.] // Pure and Applied Geophysics. 2023. Vol. 180. P. 551–568. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03222-6.
5. Lagranzhevo modelirovanie putej perenosa zagryazneniya na morskoj poverxnosti v Yugo-Vostochnoj Baltike na osnove INMOM / M.V. Budyanskij [i dr.] // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2026. № 4. 2026. S. 121–142.
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9. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie e`volyucii primesi v Azovskom more / V.A. Ivanov [i dr.] // E`kologicheskaya bezopasnost` pribrezhnoj i shel`fovoj zon i kompleksnoe ispol`zovanie resursov shel`fa. 2006. № 14. S. 230–239.
10. Belova Yu.V., Chistyakov A.E. Modelirovanie dinamiki koncentracii vredonosnyx vidov fitoplanktona v Taganrogskom zalive Azovskogo morya // Bezopasnost` texnogennyx i prirodnyx sistem. 2025. T. 9. № 4. S. 284–293. DOI:https://doi.org/10.23947/2541-9129-2025-9-4-284-293.
11. Chistyakov A.E., Kuzneczova I.Yu. Ocenka ekologicheskix riskov melkovodnogo vodoema pri provedenii dnouglubitel`ny`x rabot // Bezopasnost` texnogennyx i prirodnyx sistem. 2024. T. 8. № 2. S. 37–46. DOI:https://doi.org/10.23947/2541-9129-2024-8-2-37-46.
12. Belova Yu.V., Nikitina A.V. Primenenie metodov usvoeniya dannyx nablyudenij dlya modelirovaniya rasprostraneniya zagryaznyayushhix veshhestv v vodoeme i upravleniya ustojchivym razvitiem // Bezopasnost` texnogennyx i prirodnyx sistem. 2024. T. 8. № 3. S. 39–48. DOI:https://doi.org/10.23947/2541-9129-2024-8-3-39-48.
13. The impact of circulation features on the dispersion of radionuclides after the nuclear submarine accident in Chazhma Bay (Japan Sea) in 1985: A retrospective Lagrangian simulation / M.V. Budyansky [et al.] // Marine Pollution Bulletin. 2022. Vol. 177. 113483. DOI: 10.1016/ j.marpolbul.2022.113483.
14. Search and rescue at sea aided by hidden flow structures / M. Serra [et al.] // Nature Communications. 2020. Vol. 11. 2525. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16281-x.
15. Potential Hazard of Radioactive Contamination of the Marine Environment Due to Possible Earthquakes near the Kashiwazaki–Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant / M.V. Budyansky [et al.] // Doklady Earth Sciences. 2025. Vol. 520. No. 5. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X24604358.
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17. Primer sopostavleniya vixrevy`x struktur v polyax ejlerovyx i lagranzhevyx xarakteristik dlya Severo-zapadnoj chasti Tixogo okeana / Novoselova E.V. [i dr.] // «Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta». Nauki o Zemle. 2024. T. 69. № 2. S. 372–388. DOI:https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu07.2024.209.
18. Role of mesoscale eddies in transport of Fukushima-derived cesium isotopes in the ocean / M.V. Budyansky [et al.] // Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers. 2015. Vol. 96. P. 15–27. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2014.09.007.
19. Prants S.V., Uleysky M.Y., Budyansky M.V. Lagrangian Oceanography: Large-scale Transport and Mixing in the Ocean. Cham: Springer. 2017. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53022-2.
20. Dynamics of anthropogenic pollutant spread from Taganrog Bay into the Sea of Azov / M.V. Budyansky [et al.] // Russian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2026.
21. Surface Transport of Technical Waters from Fukushima NPP to the South Kuril Fishing Zone / M.V. Budyansky [i dr.] // Russian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2024. Vol. 24. ES4002. DOI:https://doi.org/10.2205/2024es000934.
22. Ocenka zagryazneniya vod Yuzhno-Kuril`skoj rybolovnoj zony radioaktivnymi vodami AE`S «Fukusima-1» na osnove lagranzheva modelirovaniya / M.V. Budyanskij [i dr.] // Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Nauki o Zemle. 2024. T. 515. № 1. S. 164–174. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686739724030212.
23. Can contaminated waters from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP penetrate the East China Sea / M.V. Budyanskij [et al.] // Pure and Applied Geophysics. 2025. Vol. 182. P. 1843–1860. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03688-0.
24. Obespechenie radiacionnoj bezopasnosti naseleniya dal`nevostochny`x regionov Rossijskoj Federacii v usloviyax dolgovremennogo sbrosa vody` s AE`S «Fukusima-1» / A.Yu. Popova [i dr.] // Radiacionnaya gigiena. 2026. T. 19. № 1. S. 7–22. DOI:https://doi.org/10.21514/1998-426X-2026-19-1-7-22.
25. Potencial`naya opasnost` radiacionnogo zagryazneniya morskoj sredy iz-za vozmozhnyx zemletryasenij vblizi AES «Kasivadzaki-KARIVA» / M.V. Budyanskij [i dr.] // Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Nauki o Zemle. 2025. T. 520. № 2. S. 348–358. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686739725020204.
