Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
Emergence and distribution of emergency situations – the difficult process depending on a set of factors. Important task is their prevention. However the probability of emergence of various emergency situations has not identical values. Showed the practical use of stochastic methods for an assessment of emergence and development of emergency situations.

Keywords:
environment, mathematic model, stochastic model, emergencies
References

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2. Akimov V.A., Lesnyh V.V., Radaev N.N. Osnovy analiza i upravleniya riskom v prirodnoy i tehnogennoy sferah. M.: Delovoy ekspress, 2004. 352 s.

3. Motorygin Yu.D. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie processov vozniknoveniya i razvitiya pozharov: monografiya / pod obsch. red. V.S. Artamonova. SPb.: S.-Peterb. un-t GPS MChS Rossii, 2011. 184 s.

4. Rassledovanie pozharov: ucheb. / V.S. Artamonov [i dr.]. SPb.: S.-Peterb. un-t GPS MChS Rossii, 2007. 562 s.

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