This article is devoted to the establishment of the upper and lower limit of the individual fire risk for Mongolia, which is currently not defined. The determination of the values of the upper and lower levels of the individual fire risk will facilitate the direct determination of the individual fire risk. The substantiation of individual fire risk for Mongolia is extremely necessary when solving managerial tasks to ensure fire safety of objects of the economy and territories of this country. The article shows that the upper limit of an individual fire risk should be no more than 1.7∙10 -5 , and its lower value should be at least 1.7 ∙10 -7 . This is shown on the basis of a mathematical analysis of individual fire risk in a number of countries that are similar in climatic conditions to Mongolia.
individual fire risk, limiting risk level, number of people killed during fires, null hypothesis
1. Brushlinskiy N.N., Sokolov S.V. Sovremennye problemy obespecheniya pozharnoy bezopasnosti v Rossii: monografiya. M.: Akad. GPS MChS Rossii, 2014. 178 s.
2. Brushlinskiy N.N., Sokolov S.V. Ob usovershenstvovanii «Tehnicheskogo reglamenta o trebovaniyah pozharnoy bezopasnosti» // Pozharovzryvobezopasnost'. 2012. T. 21. № 3. S. 9-16.
3. Harisov G.H., Firsov A.V. Obosnovanie normativnogo znacheniya i raschetnoy velichiny individual'nogo pozharnogo riska v zdaniyah i sooruzheniyah: monografiya. M.: Akad. GPS MChS Rossii, 2014. 225 s.
4. Grazhdankin A.I., Lisanov M.V., Pchel'nikov A.V. Osnovnye principy normirovaniya dopustimogo tehnogennogo riska: materialy H Mezhdunar. nauch.-prakt. konf. po problemam zaschity naseleniya i territoriy ot chrezvychaynyh situaciy. M.: CSI MChS Rossii, 2005.
5. Analiz obstanovki s pozharami i posledstviyami ot nih na territorii Mongoliya za 2017 god. Ulan-Bator: Departament nadzornoy deyatel'nosti AGChS po Mongolii, 2017. 36 s.
6. Bykov A.A., Akimov V.A., Faleev M.I. Normativno-ekonomicheskie modeli upravleniya riskom // Rossiyskoe nauchnoe obschestvo analiza riska: yubileynyy sbornik. M.: ZAO FID «Delovoy ekspress», 2013. S. 55-67.
7. Predel'no dopustimye urovni riska (poyasnitel'naya zapiska) // Rossiyskoe nauchnoe obschestvo analiza riska: yubileynyy sbornik. M.: ZAO FID «Delovoy ekspress», 2013. S. 14-19.
8. Kornienko V.S. Matematicheskaya statistika. Reshenie zadach po teme: «Proverka statisticheskih gipotez»: metod. razrabotka. Volgograd: Volgogr. gos. sel.-hoz. akad., 2010.
9. 68 s.
10. Brushlinsky N.N., Ahrens M., Sokolov S.V., Wagner P. World Fire statistics. Report № 22 // Center of Fire statistics - International Association of Fire and Rescue services. 2017. 59 p.
11. Bruslinsky N.N., Ahrens M., Skolov S., Wagner P. World Fire Statistics Report № 20. Center of Fire Statistics. International association of fire and rescue services, 2015.
12. Deklaraciya Rossiyskogo nauchnogo obschestva analiza riska «O predel'no dopustimyh urovnyah riska» // Rossiyskoe nauchnoe obschestvo analiza riska: yubileynyy sbornik. M.: ZAO FID «Delovoy ekspress», 2013. S. 13.
13. Vostokov V.Yu. Ocenka i prognoz riska chrezvychaynyh situaciy v operativnom poryadke. M.: Nauch. izd-vo TVP; Redakciya OPiPM, 2016. 312 c.
