Transport systems of the N.S. Solomenko institute of transport problems of the Russian academy of sciences (Laboratory of safety problems of transport systems, head of the laboratory)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
UDK 614.841 Характер пожара, причины, процесс
The article deals with issues related to fires and gas explosions in limited construction volumes, in particular, fires of liquid-fueled cars and explosions of gas-cylinder cars in underground parking lots and ground parking lots of a closed type. It is shown that various emergency situations of a cascading nature can occur in such parking lots – from fires of one or several cars to explosions of gas-cylinder cars both due to depressurization of gas-cylinder equipment and due to heat flows from neighboring burning cars. A Markov chain of cascading development of an emergency situation in a parking lot is constructed and quantitative estimates of the probabilities of the corresponding situations are obtained.
car, parking lot, fire, explosion, cascade process
1. Obespechennost' avtomobilyami v krupnejshih gorodah Rossii. TOP-20. URL: https://www.autostat.ru/press-releases/46332/ (data obrashcheniya: 30.03.2021).
2. Ob utverzhdenii SP 113.13330.2016 «SNiP 21-02-99. Stoyanki avtomobilej»: prikaz Minstroya Rossii ot 7 noyab. 2016 g. № 776/pr (v red. ot 17 sent. 2019 g.). Dostup iz sprav.-pravovoj sistemy «Konsul'tantPlyus».
3. Mangushev R.A., Osokin A.I., Levinskaya P.G. Perspektivy ustrojstva podzemnyh parkingov v usloviyah stesnennoj zastrojki istoricheskogo centra Sankt-Peterburga // Zhilishchnoe stroitel'stvo. 2019. № 4. S. 3-18. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31659/0044-4472-2019-4-3-18.
4. Tarancev A.A., Sytdykov M.R., Potashev D.A. O pozharoopasnosti nekotoryh tipov avtomobilej // Nauch.-analit. zhurn. «Vestnik S.-Peterb. un-ta GPS MCHS Rossii». 2021. № 1. S. 1-8. DOI:https://doi.org/10.24412/2218-130H-2021-1-1-8.
5. Problema vzryvopozharnoj opasnosti podzemnyh avtostoyanok i ee vozmozhnoe reshenie / L.T. Tanklevskij [i dr.] // XXI vek: itogi proshlogo problemy nastoyashchego plyus. 2022. T. 11. № 4 (60). S. 225-232. DOI:https://doi.org/10.46548/21vek-2022-1160-035.
6. O modelirovanii kaskadnogo razvitiya chrezvychajnyh situacij pri pozharah na podzemnyh avtostoyankah / A.A. Tarancev [i dr.] // Problemy upravleniya riskami v tekhnosfere. 2023. №3 (67). C. 131-140. DOI:https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2023-3-131-140.
7. Ventcel' E.S. Issledovanie operacij. M.: Sovetskoe radio, 1972. 552 s.
8. Butyrskij E.Yu., Matveev A.V. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie sistem i processov. SPb.: Inform. izd. ucheb.-nauch. centr «Strategiya budushchego», 2022. 733 s. DOI:https://doi.org/10.37468/book_011222. EDN: CCRIRT.
9. Potashev D.A. Ob opasnosti vzryvov gaza v zamknutyh stroitel'nyh ob"yomah // Nauch.-analit. zhurn. «Vestnik S.-Peterb. un-ta GPS MCHS Rossii». 2023. № 2. S. 181-186.
10. Tanklevskij L.T., Zybina O.A., Tarancev A.A. Primenenie markovskih cepej k zadacham podderzhaniya gotovnosti organizacionnyh i tekhnicheskih sistem // XXI vek: itogi proshlogo problemy nastoyashchego plyus. 2023. T. 12. № 2 (62). S. 26-34. EDN: NUZAGG.
11. Kolmogorov A.N. Teoriya veroyatnostej i matematicheskaya statistika. M.: Nauka, 1986. 534 s.
12. Matveev A.V. Metody modelirovaniya i prognozirovaniya. SPb.: S.-Peterb. un-t GPS MCHS Rossii, 2022. 230 s. EDN: IMLKWS.