Kemerovo, Russian Federation
Kemerovo, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
With the rapid development of industry and technology, man-made emergencies are becoming more urgent and dangerous. The paper considers the mathematical analysis of man-made emergencies, taking into account the specifics of their occurrence. Mathematical models for assessing and predicting man-made emergencies, their probability of occurrence and consequences for the environment and society as a whole are being investigated. Special attention is paid to the development and application of statistical and deterministic methods for making forecasts related to various types of man-made accidents. The study analyzes the factors influencing the likelihood of man-made emergencies, including technical, social and economic aspects. Based on the results obtained, recommendations are proposed for improving the risk management system and rapid response to emergency situations. The results of mathematical modeling illustrate how the use of modern technologies and analytical approaches can contribute to more effective prevention and minimization of the consequences of man-ma4de emergencies. The work is aimed at increasing the awareness of participants in safety management processes and preparedness for such situations, which ultimately can help reduce the number of man-made emergencies and reduce their negative impact on humans and the natural environment.
fire safety, emergency situations, destruction, technospheric hazards, public safety, mathematical analysis, technogenic risks, emergency forecasting
1. Drysdale D.D., Sylvester-Evans R. The explosion and fire on the Piper Alpha platform, 6 July 1988. A case study // Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 1998. T. 356. № 1748. P. 2929–2951.
2. Broughton E. The Bhopal disaster and its aftermath: a review // Environmental Health. 2005. T. 4. P. 1–6.
3. Haycox S. «Fetched up»: Unlearned lessons from the Exxon Valdez // The Journal of American History. 2012. T. 99. № 1. P. 219–228.
4. Koo Y.H., Yang Y.S., Song K.W. Radioactivity release from the Fukushima accident and its consequences: a review // Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2014. T. 74. P. 61–70.
5. Fortov V.E., Fyodorov M.P., Elistratov V.V. Nauchno-tekhnicheskie problemy gidroenergetiki posle avarii na Sayano-Shushenskoj GES // Vestnik Rossijskoj akademii nauk. 2011. T. 81. № 7. S. 579–586.
6. Aleksahin P.M., Sanzharova N.I., Fesenko S.V. Radioekologiya i avariya na Chernobyl'skoj AES // Atomnaya energiya. 2006. T. 100. № 4. S. 267–276.
7. Ministerstvo Rossijskoj Federacii po delam grazhdanskoj oborony, chrezvychajnym situaciyam i likvidacii posledstvij stihijnyh bedstvij. URL: https://mchs.gov.ru/ (data obrashcheniya: 10.09.2024).
8. Etalonnaya informacionnaya sistema po matematicheskomu upravleniyu bezopasnost'yu lyudej / E.N. Neverov [i dr.] // Vestnik nauchnogo centra po bezopasnosti rabot v ugol'noj promyshlennosti. 2022. № 4. S. 33–37. EDN LWIJGM.
9. Lazhauninkas Yu.V., Kochegarova O.S. Primenenie metoda eksponencial'nogo sglazhivaniya pri razrabotke prognozov ekonomicheskih processov // Zakonomernosti i tendencii razvitiya nauki v sovremennom obshchestve: sb. statej mezhdunar. nauch.-prakt. konf. 2016. № 3. S. 145–148.
10. Harin Yu.S. Optimal'nost' i robastnost' v statisticheskom prognozirovanii. Minsk: Belorusskij gos. un-t, 2008. 263 s. ISBN 978-985-485-950-7. EDN CPQMTP.
11. Gorbunov S.V., Makiev M.Yu., Malyshev V.P. Monitoring i prognozirovanie chrezvychajnyh situacij prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo haraktera // Tekhnologii grazhdanskoj bezopasnosti. 2012. T. 9. № 1 (31). S. 70–79.
12. Besperstov D.A., Neverov E.N., Fomin A.I. Ocenka i obespechenie bezopasnosti lyudej pri pozharah na proizvodstve i v bytu. Kemerovo: Kemerovskij gos. un-t, 2024. 189 s. ISBN 978-5-8353-3126-0. EDN HTSFPK.
13. Bezopasnost' promyshlennogo proizvodstva v Rossijskoj Federacii i za rubezhom / E.N. Neverov [i dr.] // Vestnik nauchnogo centra po bezopasnosti rabot v ugol'noj promyshlennosti. 2023. № 2. S. 6–11. EDN BRXVPG.
14. Razrabotka metodologicheskogo principa obespecheniya pozharobezopasnosti lyudej / A.I. Fomin [i dr.] // Vestnik nauchnogo centra po bezopasnosti rabot v ugol'noj promyshlennosti. 2023. № 4. S. 27–34. EDN AAPUNB.