THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT  IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT

Alexander Tarantsev; Dmitriy Kozhevin; Dmitry Potashev

doi:10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25

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THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT

Published in Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» · Pages 16–25 · Rubric: FIRE SAFETY

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25

Received: 23.11.2023 Accepted: 04.12.2023 Published: 14.02.2024

Authors

Alexander Tarantsev

ORCID SPIN

Dmitriy Kozhevin

ORCID SPIN

Dmitry Potashev

ORCID SPIN

Alexander Tarantsev

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Saint Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia professor · Department of fire extinguishing and emergency rescue operations

Transport systems of the N.S. Solomenko institute of transport problems of the Russian academy of sciences head of the laboratory · Laboratory of safety problems of transport systems · Russian Federation

ORCID SPIN

Dmitriy Kozhevin

Academic degree: candidate of technical sciences

Science rang: docent

Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia chief of the department · physical and chemical bases of the burning and extinguishing processes department · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID SPIN

Dmitry Potashev

Saint Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia senior lecturer and methodologist · department of innovative projects and programs of the development institute

ORCID SPIN

ABSTRACT

The article deals with issues related to fires and gas explosions in limited construction volumes, in particular, fires of liquid-fueled cars and explosions of gas-cylinder cars in underground parking lots and ground parking lots of a closed type. It is shown that various emergency situations of a cascading nature can occur in such parking lots – from fires of one or several cars to explosions of gas-cylinder cars both due to depressurization of gas-cylinder equipment and due to heat flows from neighboring burning cars. A Markov chain of cascading development of an emergency situation in a parking lot is constructed and quantitative estimates of the probabilities of the corresponding situations are obtained.

KEYWORDS

car, parking lot, fire, explosion, cascade process

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Chairman of the Editorial Board, Head of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies of Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia

Alexander Matveev

Secretary, Deputy Head of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Information Technology of Saint-Petersburg University of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia

Alexander Maksimov

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Tarantsev A. A., Kozhevin D. F., Potashev D. A. THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT // Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia». 2024. no. 4. pp. 16-25. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25. (Date of access 08.09.2026).

MLA

Alexander Tarantsev, Kozhevin D. F., Potashev D. A.. "THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT." Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» 2023.4 (2024): 16-25. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25.

APA

Tarantsev A. A., Kozhevin D. F., Potashev D. A. (2024). THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT. Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia», 2023(4), 16-25. https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25

Chicago

Alexander Tarantsev, Kozhevin D. F., Potashev D. A.. "THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT." Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» 2023, no. 4 (2024): 16-25. https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Tarantsev A. A., Kozhevin D. F., Potashev D. A. | title = THE MARKOV MODEL OF CASCADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRE AND EXPLOSIVE SITUATION IN PARKING LOT | journal = Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» | year = 2024 | volume = 2023 | issue = 4 | pages = 16-25 | doi = 10.61260/2218-130X-2024-2023-4-16-25 }}

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