UDC 614.8 UDC 519.2

IDENTIFICATION OF PATTERNS IN STATISTICAL DATAON THE PARAMETERS OF NATURAL EMERGENCIES

Published in Problems of risk management in the technosphere · Volume 2025, Issue 3 · Pages 30–39 · Rubric: Risk reduction and elimination of consequences of emergency situations. Ensuring safety in case of emergency
DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2025-3-30-39
Received: 03.06.2025 Accepted: 18.07.2025 Published: 21.10.2025
The article substantiates the relevance of processing statistical data on natural processes that lead to emergencies and negatively affect the environmental situation. Informationis provided on determining the consistency of samples of random variables of parameters of such processes according to known distribution laws using the Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria, as wellas the consistency of estimates and coefficients of variation, asymmetry and kurtosis of a sampleof random variables and the distribution law. It is shown that the β-distribution of the 1-st kind canbe accepted as a universal approximating law and analytical expressions can be derived to find its parameters. Using the examples of statistics on the average annual water consumption in the riverand the energy parameters of seismic events, analytical expressions are derived for the corresponding probability densities of β-distributions of the 1-st kind. The probabilities of the occurrence of negative events are estimated based on the thresholds of the average annual water consumption and the energy parameter of seismic events, respectively. The conclusion is made about the possibility of effective use of the β-distribution of the 1-st kind for the analysis of statistical data of a wide class of natural and man-made processes.
emergencies, statistical data, distribution laws
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