REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE

Bogdan Gavkalyuk; Evgeny Deineka; Vladimir Glukhov

doi:10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153

UDC 005

REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE

Published in Problems of risk management in the technosphere · Volume 2026, Issue 1 · Pages 139–153 · Rubric: Fire safety

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153

Received: 18.01.2026 Accepted: 06.02.2026 Published: 16.04.2026

Authors

Bogdan Gavkalyuk

SPIN

Evgeny Deineka

Vladimir Glukhov

SPIN

Bogdan Gavkalyuk

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia head of the university · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

SPIN

Evgeny Deineka

Main directorate of EMERCOM of Russia in the Leningrad region head of the main directorate · Russian Federation · Murino

Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia applicant · department of fire, emergency rescue equipment and automotive industry · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

Vladimir Glukhov

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Research laboratory «Digital economy of industry» chief research associate · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

Peter the Great Saint-Petersburg polytechnic university head of the rector's administrative office · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

SPIN

ABSTRACT

The article addresses the critically important task of enhancing the efficiency of emergency monitoring and response systems through the integration and intelligent analysis of heterogeneous data sources. The authors systematize existing state and departmental information systems of EMERCOM of Russia, highlighting the challenge of processing large volumes of unstructured information under time constraints. Particular attention is paid to social networks as the largest source of operational data, which, however, is characterized by a high level of information noise and low reliability. The work substantiates the necessity of applying artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms to automate processes of verification, classification, and forecasting. A set of principles for processing primary information is proposed, including source reliability assessment, semantic content analysis, emergency classification, and statistical modeling of their development. The key result is a methodological approach aimed at creating a unified intelligent platform capable of ensuring more prompt and evidence-based decision-making for emergency response services, which will ultimately minimize damage and save lives.

KEYWORDS

emergency forecasting, social networks, artificial intelligence, real-time monitoring, data analysis, information system of EMERCOM of Russia, big data processing

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Professor of the Department of Physical and Chemical Fundamentals of Combustion and Extinguishing Processes Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia

Olga Lozhkina

Head of the Department of Fire, Rescue Equipment and automotive industry of Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia

Maksim Sytdykov

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GOST

Gavkalyuk B. V., Deineka E. G., Glukhov V. V. REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE // Problems of risk management in the technosphere. 2026. no. 1. pp. 139-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153. (Date of access 27.09.2026).

MLA

Bogdan Gavkalyuk, Deineka E. G., Glukhov V. V.. "REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE." Problems of risk management in the technosphere 2026.1 (2026): 139-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153.

APA

Gavkalyuk B. V., Deineka E. G., Glukhov V. V. (2026). REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE. Problems of risk management in the technosphere, 2026(1), 139-153. https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153

Chicago

Bogdan Gavkalyuk, Deineka E. G., Glukhov V. V.. "REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE." Problems of risk management in the technosphere 2026, no. 1 (2026): 139-153. https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Gavkalyuk B. V., Deineka E. G., Glukhov V. V. | title = REAL-TIME FIRE DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION AT THE INITIAL STAGE | journal = Problems of risk management in the technosphere | year = 2026 | volume = 2026 | issue = 1 | pages = 139-153 | doi = 10.61260/1998-8990-2026-1-139-153 }}

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