ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION  AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES

Gafur Samigullin; Nina Tregub

doi:10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30

UDC 629.463.32 UDC 614.841

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ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES

Published in Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» · Volume 2026, Issue 2 · Pages 20–30 · Rubric: FIRE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30

Received: 20.04.2026 Accepted: 26.05.2026 Published: 26.05.2026

Authors

Gafur Samigullin

ORCID SPIN

Nina Tregub

ORCID

Gafur Samigullin

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Saint-Petersburg university of the State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia Professor · department of physical and chemical basis of combustion and extinguishing · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID SPIN

Nina Tregub

Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia postgraduate student · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The problem of cascading fire and explosion hazards at rail infrastructure facilities transporting flammable liquids is considered. It is shown that depressurization of a tank car carrying AI-95 gasoline in conditions of rolling stock accumulation on shunting tracks can initiate a chain reaction of fires in adjacent objects. A Markov chain of emergency development is constructed, including nine system states – from normal operation to catastrophic consequences. Analytical expressions and numerical estimates of the state probabilities are obtained. It is established that, for given transition rates, the probability of a cascading fire scenario occurring by 50 min. is 97,75 %. The results of the study can be used to justify organizational and technical measures to minimize damage and improve fire safety at railway facilities.

KEYWORDS

railway transport, transportation of dangerous goods, fire, explosion, cascade process

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Chairman of the Editorial Board, Head of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies of Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia

Alexander Matveev

Secretary, Deputy Head of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Information Technology of Saint-Petersburg University of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia

Alexander Maksimov

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Samigullin G. K., Tregub N. A. ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES // Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia». 2026. no. 2. pp. 20-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30. (Date of access 27.10.2026).

MLA

Gafur Samigullin, Tregub N. A.. "ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES." Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» 2026.2 (2026): 20-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30.

APA

Samigullin G. K., Tregub N. A. (2026). ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES. Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia», 2026(2), 20-30. https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30

Chicago

Gafur Samigullin, Tregub N. A.. "ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES." Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» 2026, no. 2 (2026): 20-30. https://doi.org/10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Samigullin G. K., Tregub N. A. | title = ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FIRE ESCALATION AT RAILWAY TRANSPORT FACILITIES | journal = Scientific and analytical journal «Vestnik Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia» | year = 2026 | volume = 2026 | issue = 2 | pages = 20-30 | doi = 10.61260/2218-130X-2026-2-20-30 }}

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