Russian Federation
from 01.01.2013 until now
Russian Federation
UDC 614.8
The lack of scientifically based methods for assessing the need for forces and means complicates prompt decision-making in conditions of limited resources and highly dynamic situations when responding to incidents in the waters of megacities. The main results of this study include the development of a mathematical model for determining the required number of forces and means when conducting search and rescue operations in the waters of Saint-Petersburg. The model takes into account hydrometeorological conditions, the type of incident, the characteristics of rescue vessels and other factors. An algorithm for calculating the search area, the time of work and the optimal search strategy is proposed. A practical example shows how the model allows justifying the sufficiency or necessity of attracting additional forces. The practical significance lies in the possibility of introducing the model into an automated decision support system, which will reduce the time for assessing the situation, minimize the human factor and increase the efficiency of resource use during search and rescue operations.
model, forces and means, management, search for victims, search and rescue operations, water area of St. Petersburg
1. Kolerov D.A., Matveev A.V Sistemnyj analiz problem upravleniya poiskovo-spasatel'nymi rabotami v akvatorii Sankt-Peterburga // Nacional'naya bezopasnost' i strategicheskoe planirovanie. 2023. № 4 (44). S. 78–89. DOI:https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2024-2023-4-78-89. EDN EZRNLK.
2. O neobhodimosti razrabotki koncepcii razvitiya sistemy obespecheniya bezopasnosti na vodnyh postradavshegoah Sankt-Peterburga / O.I. Arishina [i dr.] // Morskoj vestnik.2019. № 4 (72). S. 115–120. EDN XTZPAE.
3. Kolerov D.A., Danchuk Yu.L., Mamontova I.O. Analiz problem reagirovaniya poiskovo-spasatel'nyh sluzhb v akvatorii Sankt-Peterburga i podhody k ih resheniyu // Prirodnye i tekhnogennye riski (fiziko-matematicheskie i prikladnye aspekty). 2023. № 2 (45). S. 74–80. EDN SQYPWZ.
4. Kolerov D.A. Algoritm podderzhki prinyatiya upravlencheskih reshenij po vyboru optimal'nogo marshruta patrulirovaniya akvatorii Sankt-Peterburga // Sibirskij pozharno-spasatel'nyj vestnik. 2024. № 2 (33). S. 82–93. DOI:https://doi.org/10.34987/vestnik.sibpsa.2024.75.70.016. EDN HPIBDY.
5. Perevalov A.S., Edush N.Yu. Ob organizacii poiskovo-spasatel'noj sluzhby zarubezhnyh stran // Voprosy oboronnoj tekhniki. Ser. 16: Tekhnicheskie sredstva protivodejstviya terrorizmu. 2013. № 5-6 (59-60). S. 118–124. EDN SBYWFJ.
6. Perevalov A.S. Scenarii upravleniya silami i sredstvami poiskovo-spasatel'nyh formirovanij MChS Rossii na vnutrennih akvatoriyah // Prirodnye i tekhnogennye riski (fiziko-matematicheskie i prikladnye aspekty). 2013. № 1 (5). S. 18–27. EDN ERWMXJ.
7. Kuvatov V.I., Zavodskov G.N., Kolerov D.A. Ocenka effektivnosti upravleniya bezopasnost'yu na ob"ektah vodnogo transporta // Nauch.-analit. zhurn. «Vestnik S.-Peterb. un-ta GPS MCHS Rossii». 2022. № 4. S. 81–90. EDN WPMFNU.
8. Model' mezhvedomstvennogo informacionnogo vzaimodejstviya organov RSChS pri upravlenii poiskovo-spasatel'nymi rabotami v akvatorii Sankt-Peterburga / D.A. Kolerov [i dr.] // Sovremennye problemy grazhdanskoj zashchity. 2023. № 2 (47). S. 19–26. EDN VEJWZE.
9. Funkcional'naya model' upravleniya silami i sredstvami RSChS pri provedenii poiskovo-spasatel'nyh rabot v akvatorii Sankt-Peterburga / D.A. Kolerov [i dr.] // Sibirskij pozharno-spasatel'nyj vestnik. 2023. № 2 (29). S. 107–116. DOI:https://doi.org/10.34987/vestnik.sibpsa.2023.65.54.007. EDN RVCGMO.
10. Postroenie kart veroyatnostej mestonahozhdeniya postradavshego poiska v prirodnoj srede: svidetel'stvo o gosudarstvennoj registracii programmy dlya EVM RU 2017613584, 22.03.2017. Zayavka: 23.12.2016.
11. Programma dlya podderzhki poiskovo-spasatel'nyh operacij v otdalennyh rajonah s ispol'zovaniem amfibijnogo sudna: svidetel'stvo o gosudarstvennoj registracii programmy dlya EVM RU 2017616507, 08.06.2017. Zayavka 13.04.2017.
12. Danchuk Yu.L. Model' i metodika rascheta razmeshcheniya spasatel'nyh podrazdelenij po obespecheniyu bezopasnosti lyudej v mestah massovogo otdyha na akvatorii i plyazhah (na primere sub"ekta Sankt-Peterburg) // Inzhenernyj vestnik Dona. 2023. № 9 (105). S. 124–141. EDN HNLFHR.
13. Xiong W., Van Gelder P., Yang K. A decision support method for design and operationalization of search and rescue in maritime emergency // Ocean Engineering. 2020. Vol. 207. P. 107399.
14. A decision-making algorithm for maritime search and rescue plan / D. Agbissoh Otote [et al.] // Sustainability. 2019. Vol. 11. № 7. P 2084.
15. Boush R.L. Vliyanie lokal'noj gipotermii na bystrotu i tochnost' dvizhenij cheloveka // Uchenye zapiski universiteta im. P.F. Lesgafta. 2007. № 8. S. 20–25.
16. Abchuk V.A., Matvejchuk F.A., Tomashevskij L.P. Spravochnik po issledovaniyu operacij. M.: Voenizdat, 1979. 368 s.
17. Selezen' Ya.Yu. Metodika postroeniya modeli ekspertnyh predpochtenij raspredeleniya podrajonov poiska mezhdu poiskovo-spasatel'nymi sredstvami // Ekspluataciya morskogo transporta. 2023. № 2 (107). S. 87–93. DOI:https://doi.org/10.34046/aumsuomt107/14.
18. Selezen' Ya.Yu., Boran-Keshish'yan A.L. Matematicheskie modeli kriteriev raspredeleniya podrajonov poiska mezhdu poiskovo-spasatel'nymi sredstvami // Morskie intellektual'nye tekhnologii. 2023. № 2-1 (60). S. 198–208. DOI:https://doi.org/10.37220/MIT.2023.60.2.025.
