Russian Federation
The relevance of this study is determined by the increasing scale and damage caused by wildfires, despite a simultaneous decline in their overall number, which highlights the inadequacy of existing methods for calculating firefighting forces and resources in the face of modern challenges. Particular difficulties arise in combating fires in remote areas with limited access to water resources. This study analyzes statistical data from EMERCOM of Russia for 2020–2024, performs a taxonomic analysis of wildfires, and develops a regression model for predicting the demand for firefighting forces and equipment. The model was tested using a real wildfire case in the Tepe-Oba area (Republic of Crimea, 2024, with a burned area of 150 hectares), which demonstrated high predictive accuracy: the deviation from actual data did not exceed 2 % both in terms of the number of deployed firefighting units and the amount of material damage. The practical significance of the research lies in the possibility of applying the model for operational planning and decision support, including the justification for deploying mobile pipeline groups and retrofitted military off-road equipment (ARS-14, TMS-65). The limitations of the model are related to its inability to account for equipment failures and logistical difficulties in extinguishing fires in hard-to-reach areas, which define the directions for its further development.
forest fires, peat fires, firefighting forces and means, calculation of requirements, mobile pipeline units, hard-to-reach areas, damage, firefighting efficiency
1. O edinoj gosudarstvennoj sisteme preduprezhdeniya i likvidacii chrezvychajnyh situacij: postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Ros. Federacii ot 30 dek. 2003 g. № 794. Dostup iz sprav.-pravovoj sistemy «Konsul'tantPlyus».
2. Matveev A.V., Bogdanova E.M. Klassifikaciya metodov prognozirovaniya chrezvychajnyh situacij // Nacional'naya bezopasnost' i strategicheskoe planirovanie. 2018. № 4 (24). S. 61–70. EDN YTPZYL.
3. Ob utverzhdenii Boevogo ustava podrazdelenij pozharnoj ohrany, opredelyayushchego poryadok organizacii tusheniya pozharov i provedeniya avarijno-spasatel'nyh rabot: prikaz MCHS Rossii ot 16 okt. 2017 № 444. Dostup iz sprav.-pravovoj sistemy «Konsul'tantPlyus».
4. Pozhary i pozharnaya bezopasnost' v 2024 g. Statistika pozharov i ih posledstvij / V.S. Goncharenko [i dr.] // Informacionno-analiticheskij sbornik. Balashiha: FGBU VNIIPO MCHS Rossii, 2025. 112 s
5. Large-scale fire whirl and forest fire disasters: awareness, implications, and the need for developing preventative methods / A.A. Darwish [et al.] // Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering. 2023. Vol. 9. P. 1045542. DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2023.1045542.
6. Pozharno-tekhnicheskoe obosnovanie sostava i takticheskih vozmozhnostej truboprovodnyh mobil'nyh grupp GPS MCHS RF. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/pozharno-tehnicheskoe-obosnovanie-sostava-i-takticheskih-vozmozhnostey-truboprovodnyh-mobilnyh-grupp-gps-mchs-rf (data obrashcheniya: 21.05.2025).
7. K voprosu ob upravlenii silami i sredstvami pri tushenii lesnyh pozharov / A.A. Karapuzikov [i dr.] // Tekhnosfernaya bezopasnost'. 2020. № 2 (27). S. 16–27. EDN URZSEG.
8. Vilkov V.B., Gorshkova E.E., Chernyh A.K. Reshenie zadachi nahozhdeniya optimal'nogo marshruta patrulirovaniya dejstvuyushchih lesnyh pozharov v zadannom rajone // Nauchno-analiticheskij zhurnal «Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta Gosudarstvennoj protivopozharnoj sluzhby MChS Rossii». 2021. № 3. S. 90–98. EDN ZYOYFF.
9. Butyrskij E.Yu., Matveev A.V. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie sistem i processov. SPb.: Informacionnyj izdatel'skij uchebno-nauchnyj centr «Strategiya budushchego», 2022. 733 s. DOI:https://doi.org/10.37468/book_011222. EDN CCRIRT.
10. Medvedev D.V., Matveev A.V., Smirnov A.S. Primenenie modeli logisticheskoj regressii pri prinyatii reshenij po opredeleniyu kolichestva privlekaemyh sil na likvidaciyu lesnyh pozharov // Pozharovzryvobezopasnost'. 2024. T. 33. № 4. S. 84–96. DOI:https://doi.org/10.22227/0869-7493.2024.33.04.84-96
11. Forest fire spread simulation and fire extinguishing visualization research / Q. Meng [et al.] // Forests. 2023. Vol. 14. №. 7. P. 1371. DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/f14071371.
12. Maksimov A.V. Metody podderzhki prinyatiya reshenij v operativnom upravlenii pri chrezvychajnyh situaciyah: obzor issledovanij // Nacional'naya bezopasnost' i strategicheskoe planirovanie. 2023. № 2 (42). S. 91–102. DOI:https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2023-2-91-102. EDN CJCPWN.
13. Ushcherb ot pozhara pod Feodosiej prevysil 600 mln rublej. URL: https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/21992671 (data obrashcheniya: 30.05.2025).
14. Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire / J.K. Balch [et al.] // Nature. 2022. Vol. 602. №. 7897. P. 442–448.
