Russian Federation
This article examines management decision-making in the professional selection of applicants using mathematical modeling methods. The article explores the potential of a multivariable mathematical model as the basis for a decision support system. A multivariable model is a formalized representation of an applicant as a vector of indicators, each of which is assessed on a scale and weighted according to its significance. The main proposed methods include the analytic hierarchy process, logistic regression, and multivariate statistical analysis. The use of multivariable models, analytical support methods, and modern modeling technologies not only improves the effectiveness of the admissions committee but also significantly improves the composition of applicants, which directly impacts the department's long-term effectiveness. These methods significantly improve the quality, speed, and validity of decisions in the professional selection of applicants.
mathematical modeling, professional selection, multivariable model, linear normalization, analytic hierarchy process, logistic regression, weighting coefficients, criteria.
1. Lyaskovskaya E.A., Grigor'eva K.M., Halilova G.R. Cifrovizaciya gosudarstvennogo i municipal'nogo upravleniya v sub"ektah Rossijskoj Federacii // Vestnik YUUrGU. Seriya «Ekonomika i menedzhment». 2023. T. 17, № 4. S. 29–42. DOI:https://doi.org/10.14529/em230403.
2. Demidov A.A., Zaharov YU.N. Informacionno-analiticheskie sistemy podderzhki prinyatiya reshenij v organah gosudarstvennoj vlasti i mestnogo samoupravleniya. Osnovy proektirovaniya i vnedreniya: ucheb. posobie. SPb.: NIU ITMO, 2012. 100 s.
3. Zamyatin A.V. Intellektual'nyj analiz dannyh: ucheb. posobie. Tomsk: Izdatel'skij Dom Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2020. 196 s.
4. Ob utverzhdenii pravil provedeniya meropriyatij po professional'nomu psihologicheskomu otboru pri postuplenii grazhdanina na sluzhbu v federal'nuyu protivopozharnuyu sluzhbu Gosudarstvennoj protivopozharnoj sluzhby: prikaz MCHS Rossii ot 25 marta 2025 g. № 240. Dostup iz inf.-pravovogo portala «Garant».
5. Nikolaenko E.V., Butuzov S.YU. Metodika opredeleniya professional'no vazhnyh kachestv abiturientov pri podderzhke prinyatiya reshenij v sisteme professional'nogo otbora // Nauchno-analiticheskij zhurnal «Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta gosudarstvennoj protivopozharnoj sluzhby MCHS Rossii». 2025. № 2. S. 69–76.
6. Saati T.L. Prinyatie reshenij. Metod analiza ierarhij. M.: Radio i svyaz', 1989. 316 s.
7. Smirnov A.S., Vojtenok O.V. Povyshenie effektivnosti upravleniya kachestvom podgotovki specialistov v oblasti pozharnoj bezopasnosti // Problemy upravleniya riskami v tekhnosfere. 2012. № 2 (22). S. 102–107.
8. Smirnov A.S., Vojtenok O.V. Modelirovanie deyatel'nosti uchebnyh podrazdelenij – kak osnova uspeshnogo upravleniya podgotovkoj specialistov v uchebnyh zavedeniyah MCHS Rossii // Problemy upravleniya riskami v tekhnosfere. 2011. № 3 (19). S. 55–61.
9. Modelirovanie processov i sistem / A.P. Satin [i dr.]. Ucheb.-metod. posobie. M.: Akademiya GPS MCHS Rossii, 2016. 106 s.
10. Sistemy podderzhki prinyatiya reshenij / A.P. Satin [i dr.]. Ucheb-metod. posobie. M.: Akademiya GPS MCHS Rossii, 2017. 150 s.
