The analysis of the fire causes on open car parking lots is carried out. The absence of unital theory and models which could describe a process of beginning and expansion of the fire on car parking lots is shown. The modern discrete models of the characterization of the fires include enormous number of approximations, averagings and assumptions, and as a result in the form of the systems of the differential equations allow to calculate only approximately process of expansion fire's dangerous factors. The proposed technique of decreasing fire danger on open car parking lots allows to make an effective decisions in a dangerous situations. The stochastic models allow to describe the relations between beginning and expansion processes of fire's dangerous factors.
fire danger, vehicle, decision-making optimization, math modeling, percolation models, Markov chains
1. O klassifikacii chrezvychaynyh situaciy prirodnogo i tehnogennogo haraktera: Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Ros. Federacii ot 21 maya 2007 g. № 304 // Ros. gaz. 2007. 26 maya. № 111.
2. Galishev M.A., Motorygin Yu.D. Stohasticheskie metody prinyatiya resheniy dlya umen'sheniya veroyatnosti vozniknoveniya chrezvychaynyh situaciy // Problemy upravleniya riskami v tehnosfere. 2013. № 4 (28). S. 59-64.
3. Miryasov E.Yu., Amanbaev M.T., Motorygin Yu.D. Perkolyacionnaya model' opisaniya processov razvitiya chrezvychaynyh situaciy // Nauch.-analit. zhurn. «Vestnik S.-Peterb. un-ta GPS MChS Rossii». 2013. № 3. S. 74-81.
4. Bel'shina Yu.N., Miryasov E.Yu., Pavlova A.S. Veroyatnostnyy analiz prirodnogo i tehnogennogo riskov // Pozharnaya bezopasnost': problemy i perspektivy. 2014. T. 1. № 1 (5). S. 89-91.
5. Motorygin Yu.D., Lovchikov V.A., Suhorukova I.O. Modelirovanie processa zazhiganiya s pomosch'yu konechnyh cepey Markova // Problemy upravleniya riskami v tehnosfere. 2010. № 1 (13). S. 74-79.
6. Motorygin Yu.D., Grechuha N.M., Litovchenko I.O. Process upravleniya i prinyatiya resheniya stohasticheskimi metodami v usloviyah chrezvychaynyh situaciy // Nauch.-analit. zhurn. «Vestnik S.-Peterb. un-ta GPS MChS Rossii». 2016. № 4. S. 144-150.
7. Ocenka effektivnosti prinyatiya resheniy po povysheniyu pozharnoy bezopasnosti na otkrytyh avtostoyankah / Yu.D. Motorygin [i dr.] // Pozharovzryvobezopasnost'. 2017. T. 26. № 1. S. 25-31.
8. Motorygin Yu.D. Sistemnyy analiz modeley opisaniya processov vozniknoveniya i razvitiya pozhara: dis. … d-ra tehn. nauk. SPb.: S.-Peterb. un-t GPS MChS Rossii, 2011.
