Russian Federation
Methods of forecasting water levels on river sections are considered. The comparative analysis of statistical methods of forecasting rain floods, justified the choice of the system of equations of Saint-Venant. A two-factor regression model is proposed for the short-term forecast of water levels on the Izhora river in the Leningrad region. The directions of further improvement of the proposed forecasting model are determined.
emergency, mathematical model, prediction, regression, rainfall events, hydrological forecasts, a computer model
1. Burcev A.A., Topol'skiy N.G. Ocenka opasnosti navodneniy na osnove dannyh monitoringa // Pozhary i chrezvychaynye situacii: predotvraschenie, likvidaciya. 2016. № 3. S. 15-19.
2. Topol'skiy N.G., Gavrilov A.S. Kosmicheskie i aviacionnye tehnologii monitoringa i prognozirovaniya chrezvychaynyh situaciy // Tehnologii tehnosfernoy bezopasnosti. 2014. № 3 (55). S. 16.
3. Antyuhov V.I., Ostudin N.V. Algoritmizaciya deyatel'nosti dolzhnostnyh lic centrov upravleniya v krizisnyh situaciyah MChS Rossii // Tehnologii tehnosfernoy bezopasnosti. 2017. № 2 (72). S. 220-228.
4. Greshnyh A.A., Komarova M.E., Kudryakov S.A. Trenirovka zritel'nogo vospriyatiya informacii u rabotnikov dispetcherskih i operativnyh sluzhb // Problemy upravleniya riskami v tehnosfere. 2012. № 1 (21). S. 121-128.
5. Voprosy Ministerstva Rossiyskoy Federacii po delam grazhdanskoy oborony, chrezvychaynym situaciyam i likvidacii posledstviy stihiynyh bedstviy: Ukaz Prezidenta Ros. Federacii ot 11 iyulya 2004 g. № 868 (v red. ot 10 marta 2014 g.). Dostup iz sprav.-pravovoy sistemy «Konsul'tantPlyus».
6. O edinoy gosudarstvennoy sisteme preduprezhdeniya i likvidacii chrezvychaynyh situaciy: postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Ros. Federacii ot 30 dek. 2003 g. № 794 (s izm. i dop.). Dostup iz sprav.-pravovoy sistemy «Garant».
7. Sistemnyy analiz v upravlenii: ucheb. posobie / Anfilatov V.S. [i dr.]; pod red. A.A. Emel'yanova. M.: Finansy i statistika, 2002. 368 s.
8. Bakanova A.O., Trofimec E.N. Razrabotka modeli prognoza sloya dozhdevogo pavodka reki Izhora // Sovremennye tehnologii obespecheniya grazhdanskoy oborony i likvidacii posledstviy chrezvychaynyh situaciy: sb. materialov IX Vseros. nauch.-prakt. konf. kursantov, slushateley, studentov i molodyh uchenyh s mezhdunar. uchastiem. Voronezh, 2018. S. 37-40.
9. Trofimec E.N. Prikladnaya matematicheskaya statistika v Excel: ucheb. posobie. Yaroslavl', 2013. Ch. 2. 128 s.