FORECASTING TECHNOGENIC HAZARDS CAUSED BY EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES AND CRUISE RIVER SHIPS (CASE STUDY OF SAINT-PETERSBURG)
Abstract and keywords
Abstract:
The study presents predictive modeling of hazardous anthropogenic impacts of motor vehicle traffic flows and river cruise ships on atmospheric air in zones of combined influence, using the example of Oktyabrskaya Embankment and the Big Obukhovsky Bridge in Saint Petersburg. It was found that the key pollutant is nitrogen oxides, primarily nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), whose concentrations under unfavorable meteorological and traffic conditions may significantly exceed permissible limits. It is shown that in winter, in the presence of temperature inversions and calm conditions, even with lower traffic intensity compared to the summer period, NO₂ concentrations near the roadway can reach 5–6 times the maximum permissible concentration (MPC). In summer, with increased traffic load and simultaneous operation of cruise ship engines, pollution levels in the emission zone may rise to 7,5–8,5 MPC.

Keywords:
forecasting, hazardous technogenic impact, pollutant emissions, road traffic flows, cruise river vessels
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