Russian Federation
In work the analysis of emergency situations is carried out. It is shown that now there is no single theory and models describing management process and decision makings on liquidation of emergency situations. The determined models of development of emergency situations used now include huge number of approximations, averagings and assumptions, and as a result by means of systems of the differential equations allow to calculate only approximately process of distribution of dangerous production factors. Probabilistic methods could become a basis of development of effective technology of management and decision making in case of liquidation of emergency situations. It is offered that for the analysis of communications between development of processes of distribution of dangerous factors and physical features of the environment it is possible to use stochastic models.
decision making optimization, mathematical modeling, perkolyatsionny models, finite Markov chains
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