ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS

Ekaterina Radova; Dmitriy Kozhevin; Gafur Samigullin

doi:10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82

UDC 614.849

ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS

Published in Problems of risk management in the technosphere · Issue 3, 2026 · Pages 71–82 · Rubric: Fire safety

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82

Received: 30.03.2026 Accepted: 06.07.2026 Published: 05.10.2026

Authors

Ekaterina Radova

ORCID SPIN

Dmitriy Kozhevin

ORCID SPIN

Gafur Samigullin

ORCID SPIN

Ekaterina Radova

Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia adjunct · faculty of training highly qualified personnel · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID SPIN

Dmitriy Kozhevin

Academic degree: candidate of technical sciences

Science rang: docent

Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia chief of the department · physical and chemical bases of the burning and extinguishing processes department · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID SPIN

Gafur Samigullin

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Saint-Petersburg university of the State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia Professor · department of physical and chemical basis of combustion and extinguishing · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID SPIN

ABSTRACT

This article examines the pressing issue of determining safe distances during a fire in a 50,000 m³ vertical steel oil tank under typical winter conditions, taking into account wind loads. This study was conducted against the backdrop of increasingly frequent drone attacks on fuel and energy facilities, creating a real potential for major fires with the risk of cascading accidents. An analysis of statistical data and current threats substantiates the need to refine regulatory approaches to assessing thermal impact. Calculations of incident heat flux were performed using the methodology of Order № 533 of EMERCOM of Russia «On the approval of the methodology for determining the calculated values of fire risk at production facilities», and CFD modeling was conducted using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). It was established that the methodology of Order № 533 of EMERCOM of Russia systematically overestimates distances to threshold values: in the near zone (up to 20 m) by 1,4–2,1 times, and at a distance of 40–50 m – by 5–6 times. The main reason is the idealized cylindrical model of the flare, which does not take into account the elevation of the combustion source (wall height 17,8 m) and the associated shading. It was established that comparing two calculation approaches without using in-kind data only allows one to assess their discrepancies, not their absolute accuracy. Two approaches to tactical planning were proposed: a normative (conservative) approach and a risk-based approach (using refined heat flow fields). Safe distances for personnel and the required cooling water flow rates were calculated. The feasibility of experimental validation of CFD models for developing recommendations for reducing safe distances was confirmed.

KEYWORDS

tank farm, incident heat flux, oil, fire safety, FDS modeling, safe distances, «domino effect», UAV attack, hand-held barrels

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Professor of the Department of Physical and Chemical Fundamentals of Combustion and Extinguishing Processes Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia

Olga Lozhkina

Head of the Department of Fire, Rescue Equipment and automotive industry of Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia

Maksim Sytdykov

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Radova E. V., Kozhevin D. F., Samigullin G. K. ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS // Problems of risk management in the technosphere. 2026. no. 3. pp. 71-82. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82. (Date of access 28.10.2026).

MLA

Ekaterina Radova, Kozhevin D. F., Samigullin G. K.. "ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS." Problems of risk management in the technosphere 2026.3 (2026): 71-82. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82.

APA

Radova E. V., Kozhevin D. F., Samigullin G. K. (2026). ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS. Problems of risk management in the technosphere, 2026(3), 71-82. https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82

Chicago

Ekaterina Radova, Kozhevin D. F., Samigullin G. K.. "ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS." Problems of risk management in the technosphere 2026, no. 3 (2026): 71-82. https://doi.org/10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Radova E. V., Kozhevin D. F., Samigullin G. K. | title = ESTIMATION OF THE FALLING HEAT FLOW AND DETERMINATION OF SAFE DISTANCES DURING OIL FIRES IN CLASS I TANKS | journal = Problems of risk management in the technosphere | year = 2026 | volume = 2026 | issue = 3 | pages = 71-82 | doi = 10.61260/1998-8990-2026-3-71-82 }}

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